Experts like Kelly express concerns that Israel’s potential military strikes on Iran could ignite nuclear proliferation, encompassing both “horizontal” proliferation (existing nuclear states expanding their arsenals) and “vertical” proliferation (non-nuclear states pursuing nuclear capabilities). This anxiety reflects a broader trend identified by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which notes a new arms race marked by heightened risks and uncertainties, surpassing those of the Cold War era. SIPRI’s yearbook indicates that the U.S. and Russia are modernizing their arsenals, while China is accelerating its nuclear warhead production. Additionally, India and Pakistan’s ongoing tensions further escalate the situation, with emerging systems potentially leading to conflict.
One immediate concern is Iran itself. Kelly suggests that post-conflict, Iran would likely resume its nuclear ambitions, creating what experts fear could be a “cascade” of states seeking nuclear capabilities. The prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran would alarm Israel, which is believed to have around 90 nuclear weapons, although it maintains ambiguity about its arsenal. This situation would also exacerbate fears among Iran’s Sunni adversaries, such as Saudi Arabia, which has indicated it may pursue nuclear weapons if Iran develops them.
Furthermore, North Korea might view Israel’s military actions as validation for its own nuclear strategy. Analysts suggest that North Korea has long anticipated such military campaigns, underscoring the rationale behind its own nuclear ambitions. This complex interplay of regional dynamics highlights the precarious state of global nuclear stability in the wake of Israel’s actions.
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